Ladbrokes have once again adjusted the odds they are offering for the result in the Cambridge seat at the next General Election – and once again the change is encouraging for the incumbent, Julian Huppert, though he still isn’t the favourite to win.
It’s only a small change, bringing the odds on a Lib Dem win down from 5/4 to 11/10, but it continues the trend of the odds shortening on a Lib Dem hold in Cambridge. Presumably this is in response to betting patterns, since there hasn’t been very much change in national opinion polls over the last few months.
Based on the odds, a bit of simple maths gives the implied probability of each party winning the seat. Here’s what the graph looks like now:
Since Labour are still at 4/5 in these latest odds, you might wonder why their implied chance of winning seems to have fallen a few percent. This is because the “overround” (representing the bookmaker’s profit) has increased in these latest odds – see this spreadsheet for the details of the calculation.
So the general picture, at least according to Ladbrokes, is of an increasingly close contest between Labour and the Lib Dems in Cambridge. Of course, a lot could happen in the 424 days that remain until the General Election, and it’ll be interesting to see how the odds change (or not) as polling day approaches.