This is the first scheduled post I’ve done, so I’m hoping it’s appearing as if by magic at 10pm on Thursday. It’s been a busy day, so this’ll be brief. At the start of the campaign I expected Labour to win fairly comfortably, but as the campaign has gone on my opinion has shifted towards the Lib Dems. However I think Labour are still likely to win narrowly – though I’ll be delighted to be proved wrong.
Here’s my best guess at the by-election outcome:
- Con: 6%
- UKIP: 3%
- Green: 22%
- Labour: 36%
- Lib Dem: 33%
Counting of the votes will start shortly at the Guildhall, so we’ll soon know the result. Getting my excuses in early, by-elections are particularly tricky to predict, and with a fairly low turnout the outcome is heavily influenced by how good the parties are at getting their supporters to go to the polls.
Update: The result has now been declared, and was:
- Labour 829 (37.3%)
- Lib Dem 782 (35.2%)
- Green 467 (21.0%)
- Con 100 (4.5%)
- UKIP 46 (2.1%)
Congratulations to Zoe Moghadas, and commiserations to Nichola Martin and the other unsuccessful candidates.
Here’s the result in the context of the last decade’s local election results in Romsey: