My prediction for the Romsey by-election result

This is the first scheduled post I’ve done, so I’m hoping it’s appearing as if by magic at 10pm on Thursday. It’s been a busy day, so this’ll be brief. At the start of the campaign I expected Labour to win fairly comfortably, but as the campaign has gone on my opinion has shifted towards the Lib Dems. However I think Labour are still likely to win narrowly – though I’ll be delighted to be proved wrong.

Here’s my best guess at the by-election outcome:

  • Con: 6%
  • UKIP: 3%
  • Green: 22%
  • Labour: 36%
  • Lib Dem: 33%

Counting of the votes will start shortly at the Guildhall, so we’ll soon know the result. Getting my excuses in early, by-elections are particularly tricky to predict, and with a fairly low turnout the outcome is heavily influenced by how good the parties are at getting their supporters to go to the polls.

Update: The result has now been declared, and was:

  • Labour 829 (37.3%)
  • Lib Dem 782 (35.2%)
  • Green 467 (21.0%)
  • Con 100 (4.5%)
  • UKIP 46 (2.1%)

Congratulations to Zoe Moghadas, and commiserations to Nichola Martin and the other unsuccessful candidates.

Here’s the result in the context of the last decade’s local election results in Romsey:

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2 Responses to My prediction for the Romsey by-election result

  1. Andrew says:

    So the significant change from last month is the anti-Labour swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, and the LD’s annoying “two-horse race” campaign and its implication that the LDs are a suitable alternative to the tories here was spot-on.

  2. Pingback: Democracy in action – Cambridge style | A dragon's best friend

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