A few days ago at a certain Cambridge hostelry I met one of this year’s City Council candidates, who asked me, “How do you work out your election predictions?” to which I replied, “Well, I have this special piece of seaweed…” In truth my predictions are mostly based on trends in the results from previous years, as well as looking at where the parties are focusing their efforts, trying to balance what I hear from various campaigners and adding a modest amount of hunch. I’ve never yet managed to get every seat correct, though I was pretty pleased with getting 16 out of 17 last year – Jean Glasberg’s gain for the Greens in Newnham was the one that got away.
This year’s election may turn out to be rather less predictable, with more wards than usual being actively contested. This graph shows the majorities at the most recent local election, which for most wards was last May, but in King’s Hedges was the July by-election, and the November one in Queen Edith’s. Where more than one seat was up at once, I’ve based the percentages on the highest vote for each party.
As you can see, there are relatively few double-figure majorities, and even some of these are battleground wards this year. Last year, with the congestion charge in the headlines, every ward saw a swing to the Conservatives, though they didn’t win any seats apart from in the King’s Hedges by-election. A key question this year is how much impact the issue is still having on the doorsteps – clearly there is some, but rather less than last time. Another recurring theme this year has been potholes, though ironically the City Council doesn’t have any responsibility for these – they fall to the County Council, whose elections will be held next year.
Labour currently holds 25 of the 42 seats on the City Council, and need to hang on to 22 of them to keep their majority – though they could still retain control with 21 seats thanks to the Mayor’s casting vote. Even if the Mayor were to lose her seat this year, she would still preside over the election of her successor at the council’s Annual Meeting, and would be able to cast a deciding vote in the event of a tie. However, it almost certainly won’t come to that. One-third of city councillors are up for election this year, and while Labour are defending nine seats, their other 16 seats aren’t up this time. This means they only need to win five this year to keep control, and six to keep a majority, and it seems very likely that they will do at least as well as that. However, they are undoubtedly under pressure – the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in the Chesterton wards, the Greens are pressing in Coleridge, and the Conservatives are mounting a challenge in Cherry Hinton and King’s Hedges.
On to the wards. I’ve already taken a look at the candidates in my Cambridge Independent column, so here I’ll concentrate on the likely outcome for each contest.
Abbey prediction: Green hold. The Greens are now well-established as the leading party in Abbey, and the main risk for Naomi Bennett is that her supporters will assume she’s bound to win and not bother turning out to vote. While Labour have put some work into the ward, their main focus this year has been elsewhere.
Arbury prediction: Labour hold. Arbury is my home ward, and the only election leaflets we’ve had through the letterbox this year have been from Labour. While the Conservatives managed to boost their vote last time thanks to the congestion charge issue, they were still in a fairly distant second place. If Patrick Sheil is re-elected for Labour on Thursday, he will have managed the remarkable feat of winning five elections in Arbury since 2017, despite the normal term of office being four years.
Castle prediction: Labour hold. With two vacancies last time, Castle was closely contested by the Lib Dems, Labour, and Independent candidate David Summerfield. While Mr Summerfield has fought an active campaign this year and is certainly in with a chance, I think the most likely outcome is for Labour’s Antoinette Nestor to hold her seat.
Cherry Hinton prediction: Labour hold. You can see from the graph just how dramatic last year’s result was, with the Conservatives coming within a whisker of victory in this normally safe Labour seat. However this time I think the combination of a better-organised Labour campaign, a less intense Conservative one, and the reduced impact of the congestion charge issue, will combine to increase Labour’s majority – though probably not to the gaping margins of earlier years.
Coleridge prediction: Labour hold. This is one of the wards that I am least certain of, as the Greens have been mounting a strong challenge to Labour. They need an 8% swing from Labour to take the seat, and while they managed 9% in Newnham last year, that was largely by taking votes from the Lib Dems, which are in shorter supply in Coleridge. So I think Labour will hang on this year, but with the Greens establishing themselves firmly in second place, and well-positioned for future years.
East Chesterton prediction: Labour hold. The Lib Dems have been targeting East Chesterton strongly this time, and the seat could go either way, but I think Gerri Bird’s personal vote will help to see her re-elected for Labour.
King’s Hedges prediction: Labour hold. King’s Hedges is the top Conservative target this year, and they will be hoping to add to the seat they won at the by-election in July. However a less chaotic situation for Labour, combined with the reduced impact of the congestion charge issue, should be enough for Cambridge Mayor Jenny Gawthrope Wood to hold on.
Market prediction: Lib Dem hold. The Lib Dems have had some close-run results in recent years, and Labour have been putting some effort into the ward, but I think Tim Bick’s long record as a Market councillor should see him re-elected reasonably comfortably.
Newnham prediction: Green gain from Lib Dems. The graph tells the story of Newnham elections in recent years, with a falling Lib Dem vote matched by a rising Green one. While Labour have more or less managed to hold their own, it’s looking very much like another Green gain this year, with the party well on the way to establishing Newnham as their second stronghold after Abbey.
Petersfield prediction: Labour hold. This is the prediction I’m most confident of this year; Petersfield is now Labour’s safest seat in Cambridge, and there seems little to threaten their towering majority.
Queen Edith’s prediction: Lib Dem hold. With Independent candidate Sam Davies no longer contesting the seat, it’s likely that Lib Dem Immy Blackburn-Horgan will repeat her victory in November’s by-election. Labour came quite close in the by-election, but in a city-wide election Queen Edith’s will likely be less of a priority for them.
Romsey prediction: Labour hold. Romsey is perhaps slightly less predictable this year, thanks to an Independent candidate campaigning on the Mill Road bridge issue, amongst other things, but I think Labour’s towering majority in the ward in previous elections should be more than enough for them to hold the seat comfortably.
Trumpington prediction: Lib Dem hold. Although Trumpington is more challenging for the Lib Dems than it once was, it remains one of their safer seats in the city. They will still have to work hard to keep ahead of Labour, but I think they are likely to manage it this year.
West Chesterton prediction: Labour hold. These days West Chesterton is perhaps the inverse of Trumpington, with Labour having to work hard to maintain their smallish majority over the Lib Dems. I expect they will manage it again this year.
Overall, then, my predictions amount to the perhaps not terribly exciting outcome of nine Labour holds, three Lib Dem holds, one Green hold, and a Green gain from the Lib Dems in Newnham. This would mean a city council composition of 25 Labour, 10 Lib Dems, five Greens, one Conservative and one Independent, with Labour’s majority unchanged at eight. Still, there is a fair amount of uncertainty; it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that Labour could lose one or more of Castle, Coleridge, East Chesterton or King’s Hedges, which would leave them looking more vulnerable at the next city council elections in 2026. On the other hand their large leads in the national opinion polls could help them pick up an unexpected seat or two.
The first stage of this year’s election count is taking place immediately after the polls close at 10pm on Thursday. This is the verification stage, which checks that each ballot box has the expected number of ballot papers in it. Party workers observe this process closely, and can get a pretty good idea of the likely result, though election law prevents them from telling anyone outside the count what it is. There will then be a pause until 10am on Friday morning, to give everyone the chance to get some sleep. Then the second stage of the count will begin, with the ballot papers being separated into piles for each candidate, to determine the winner. The Police and Crime Commissioner election will be counted first, with the City Council results following afterwards. I’ll be at the count on Friday to bring you all the results on Twitter, and probably some commentary on Cambridge 105 as well. As ever, best wishes to everyone out campaigning this year, as well as the tireless City Council election workers who keep the wheels of democracy turning.
Phil Rodgers 